June 2, 2008

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So, what’s it like in South Africa for Zimbabwean refugees.

… “It is better to be killed by my young brother than to be killed by someone I do not know,” said Douglas, 28, a mechanic from Harare. “I was beaten here and lost everything I worked for for two years.”

As he talked about the 80 per cent unemployment in his home country and the prospect of voting in the presidential run-off election on June 27, three burly men in leather jackets appeared out of the night. From now on the agents of Mr Mugabe’s regime would never be far from Douglas. Yet he felt he had no choice but to return.

The same was true of John, 32, who had spent 15 years in the Tokoza township. He married a South African and was a proud father. But a mob wielding clubs and knives drove him from his home. “I ran away and had to leave my wife and kid. Imagine how terrible it makes me feel being forced to leave the people I love,” he said. But when the men in leather jackets appeared, his tone changed. “Given the opportunity I have been given by my Government, I will go home a happy man,” he boomed. “I want to equate this journey to the journey made by the Israelites to the Promised Land.” …

Mark Steyn says the Clintons aren’t going to win this time.

The conventional wisdom on the Clintons was promulgated by my then-senator, Bob Smith of New Hampshire, back at the end of the impeachment trial. “He’s won,” said Senator Smith, after dutifully if vainly casting his vote to nail Slick Willie’s puffy butt. “He always wins. Let’s move on.”

They won through the Nineties. The Clintons’ Democratic party was great for the Clintons, lousy for the Democratic party, which in the course of the decade lost Senate seats, House seats, governors’ mansions, state legislatures, and on and on, until, in a final snook cocked at his comrades, Bill Clinton was unable to bequeath the White House to his vice president in a time of peace and prosperity — but his wife, campaigning for her first political office, managed to pick up a Senate seat in a state she’d barely spent 20 minutes in.

Yet even iron rules have their exceptions. This time the Clintons won’t win. And it’s the Democratic machine that wants to move on — notwithstanding that in the past three months former president-presumptive Rodham has won more votes from actual Democratic voters than Senator Obama, a weak candidate being propelled in slow motion across the finish line, the sputtering engine of his “inevitability” frantically augmented by media bobbysoxers pushing at the rear. …

David Harsanyi says to Obama, “You want change? Why not start in schools?

Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama visited a Denver-area school this week, offering his characteristically uplifting words — and not much else.

“I’m here to hold up this school and these students as an example of what’s possible in education,” Obama told those gathered at the Mapleton Expeditionary School of the Arts, “if we’re willing to try new ideas and new reforms based not on ideology but on what works to give our children the best possible chance in life.”

Should all “ideology” be discarded? Or only the “ideology” Obama finds distasteful? What if parental choice and competition offer kids the “best possible chance” for success? Would Obama then support any substantive reforms that embrace those precepts?

Up to this point, Obama has peddled a tired canard linking education failure to lack of funding. Nothing about obstructive unions? Nothing about increased teacher accountability? I wonder why. …

Bill Kristol points out Obama’s omission.

… But at an elite Northeastern college campus, Obama obviously felt no need to disturb the placid atmosphere of easy self-congratulation. He felt no need to remind students of a different kind of public service — one that entails more risks than community organizing. He felt no need to tell the graduating seniors in the lovely groves of Middletown that they should be grateful to their peers who were far away facing dangers on behalf of their country

Nor did Obama choose to mention all those college graduates who are now entering the military, either for a tour of duty or as a career, in order to serve their country. He certainly felt no impulse to wonder whether the nation wouldn’t be better off if R.O.T.C. were more widely and easily available on elite college campuses.

Obama failed to challenge — even gently — what he must have assumed would be the prejudices of much of his audience and indulged in a soft patriotism of low expectations.

Was this a public service?

John Warner has become even more of an embarrassment to Virginia since he’s decided he’s on “grandfather duty.” (“I am worried about the world that my grandchildren will inherit.” Bwa Wa!) His latest is to sign on to the latest power grab from Washington – this in the form of Joe Lieberman’s “cap and trade” bill. George Will comments.

… Lieberman’s legislation also would create a Carbon Market Efficiency Board empowered to “provide allowances and alter demands” in response to “an impact that is much more onerous” than expected. And Lieberman says that if a foreign company selling a product in America “enjoys a price advantage over an American competitor” because the American firm has had to comply with the cap-and-trade regime, “we will impose a fee” on the foreign company “to equalize the price.” Protectionism-masquerading-as-environmentalism will thicken the unsavory entanglement of commercial life and political life.

McCain, who supports Lieberman’s unprecedented expansion of government’s regulatory reach, is the scourge of all lobbyists (other than those employed by his campaign). But cap-and-trade would be a bonanza for K Street, the lobbyists’ habitat, because it would vastly deepen and broaden the upside benefits and downside risks that the government’s choices mean for businesses.

McCain, the political hygienist, is eager to reduce the amount of money in politics. But cap-and-trade, by hugely increasing the amount of politics in the allocation of money, would guarantee a surge of money into politics.

Regarding McCain’s “central facts,” the U.N.‘s World Meteorological Organization, which helped establish the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — co-winner, with Al Gore, of the Nobel Peace Prize — says global temperatures have not risen in a decade. So Congress might be arriving late at the save-the-planet party. Better late than never? No. When government, ever eager to expand its grip on the governed and their wealth, manufactures hysteria as an excuse for doing so, then: better never.

So does Robert Samuelson.

We’ll have to discard the old adage, “Everyone talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it.” In this era of global warming, it is inoperative, because the whole point of controlling greenhouse gas emissions is to do something about the weather. This promises to be hard and perhaps futile, but there are good and bad ways of attempting it. One of the bad ways is cap-and-trade. Unfortunately, it’s the darling of environmental groups and their political allies.

The chief political virtue of cap-and-trade — a complex scheme to reduce greenhouse gases — is its complexity. This allows its environmental supporters to shape public perceptions in essentially deceptive ways. Cap-and-trade would act as a tax, but it’s not described as a tax. It would regulate economic activity, but it’s promoted as a “free market” mechanism. Finally, it would trigger a tidal wave of influence-peddling, as lobbyists scrambled to exploit the system for different industries and localities. This would undermine whatever the system’s abstract advantages.

The Senate is debating a cap-and-trade proposal, and although it’s unlikely to pass, it will return because all the major presidential candidates support the concept. Cap-and-trade extends the long government tradition of proclaiming lofty goals that are impossible to achieve. We’ve had “wars” against poverty, cancer and drugs; but poverty, cancer and drugs remain. President Bush called his landmark education law No Child Left Behind rather than the more plausible Few Children Left Behind. …

Some of our favorites comment on Obama’s escape from church. Jennifer Rubin is first.

… This one gets the trifecta for dishonesty, or perhaps cluelessness. First, it is, of course, not the case that his Christian faith is being questioned. I know of no commentator, critic, or political opponent who has done that. What is at issue is his propensity to hang out with hatemongers who suggest his current post-racial theme is a pose. Second, he apparently lacks any cultural or political compass if he really believed that Wright et al. would not become an issue. Was it self-delusion? Or is he so out of touch with average Americans that he was unable to predict what would be deeply offensive to millions of Americans? And finally, notice how he impugns the motives of those who raise concerns about his association with Trinity. They are on a footing, in his book, with those perpetrating the “He’s a Muslim” canard. But the former are not perpetrating a lie. They are discussing and probing the beliefs, sincerity, and character of the man who wants to be President.

The Trinity cast of characters and Obama’s reaction to them have been more revealing than more a dozen-plus debates, all the speeches, and just about anything that has happened in over a year of campaigning. It might be even more revealing if the media would take their role seriously and press Obama on some of these obvious points. But Obama, however inadvertently, has done a fairly good job of letting us know how he makes both political and moral judgments. And that is perhaps the most important thing to know about a potential President.

Then Scott Johnson from Power Line.

… Perhaps the entire saga is little more than a tribute to the incomprehension of unsophisticated outsiders. Such outsiders lack the tools necessary to understand the reflections of Reverend Wright and his ilk in churches espousing black liberation theology. As in “Cool Hand Luke,” according to Obama, what we have here is failure to communicate. Unfortunately, not a single member of the press sought further elaboration from Obama on that point.

Every installment of this saga reveals Obama to be a deeply opportunistic politician, ready to beat a hasty retreat from yesterday’s statement of cherished principle in order to fight another day. Each installment of the saga also reveals the organs of the mainstream media to be Obama’s handmaidens. From March 18 forward they have cheered on Obama’s every step, even when Obama’s succeeding steps proved them fools.

In the aftermath of this saga, it should begin to dawn on attentive observers that Barack Obama represents a type that flourishes on many college campuses. The technical term that applies to Obama is b.s. artist. Obama is an overaged example of the phenomenon, but his skills in the art have brought him great success and he’s not giving it up now.

Marty Peretz wonders if we can learn something from airport security in Israel.

News Biscuit, Borowitz and Scrappleface are here.

June 1, 2008

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Charles Krauthammer on Carbon Chastity.

I’m not a global warming believer. I’m not a global warming denier. I’m a global warming agnostic who believes instinctively that it can’t be very good to pump lots of CO2 into the atmosphere but is equally convinced that those who presume to know exactly where that leads are talking through their hats.

Predictions of catastrophe depend on models. Models depend on assumptions about complex planetary systems — from ocean currents to cloud formation — that no one fully understands. Which is why the models are inherently flawed and forever changing. The doomsday scenarios posit a cascade of events, each with a certain probability. The multiple improbability of their simultaneous occurrence renders all such predictions entirely speculative.

Yet on the basis of this speculation, environmental activists, attended by compliant scientists and opportunistic politicians, are advocating radical economic and social regulation. “The largest threat to freedom, democracy, the market economy and prosperity,” warns Czech President Vaclav Klaus, “is no longer socialism. It is, instead, the ambitious, arrogant, unscrupulous ideology of environmentalism.”

If you doubt the arrogance, you haven’t seen that Newsweek cover story that declared the global warming debate over. Consider: If Newton’s laws of motion could, after 200 years of unfailing experimental and experiential confirmation, be overthrown, it requires religious fervor to believe that global warming — infinitely more untested, complex and speculative — is a closed issue.

But declaring it closed has its rewards. It not only dismisses skeptics as the running dogs of reaction, i.e., of Exxon, Cheney and now Klaus. By fiat, it also hugely re-empowers the intellectual left. …

David Warren celebrates high oil prices.

… Huge investments are now going into vast petroleum fields discovered offshore Brazil. There are further indications of undersea reserves on that scale from Arctic to Antarctic in all the seven seas. Iraq has been (thanks to the U.S. invasion) methodically prospected at last, and discovered to be lying over oil reserves larger than those of Saudi Arabia. North America sits on numerous grand oilfields, that have hardly been touched (thanks to our friends, the eco cherubs), and Canada is especially smiled on by fortune, for as the oil price rises to levels where they’ll be well worth extracting, our eyes can only glint in reflecting the sparkling treasure of our tar sands.

Those are all reasons in themselves to be happy, and confident about the material future, for they take away all unreasonable fear that the world will run short of carbon fuels, before technological advances obviate our need for them — perhaps in the next century.

It also means that the lock on oil supply which very nasty regimes, such as those which control Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela have been enjoying, must soon crack loose. As in 1973 and 1979, the current high price was inspired by their efforts at extortion through the OPEC cartel (and decidedly not by the oil companies), but will end, as all things end, even in this world, with the spankers spanked. We can further be sure that such regimes, which pride themselves on tactical cunning, are not smart enough to see what’s truly coming in a decade or less, when all the alternative sources start pouring onto the market. Or if they get wiser, God bless them.

Better yet, soaring oil prices are the best possible assurance of clean air and water, for the excess demand creates tremendous pressure to conserve the resource, and use it more efficiently. Indeed, the more profit the large oil companies make (Exxon-Mobil is my personal favourite), the more they can invest in the cleanest high-tech operations — from the pipeheads through the refineries to the oil tankers and depots — for they won’t want to waste a single drop. …

Ed Morrissey on some Kerry comments. And reacts to the news Obama quit his church. And posts on the gaffer.

Corner posts on the church exit.

Amy Holmes – There goes that historic, transcendent, life-changing, not since the Gettysburg Address, “I have a dream,” must-be-taught-in-every-school race speech. It didn’t hold up three months, let alone the time it would take to print up new textbooks. …

Peter Wehner – It’s been just over two months since Obama’s Philadelphia speech on race — the one that was compared by the historian Garry Wills to Lincoln’s Cooper Union address. In that speech Obama famously said he could not more disown the Reverend Jeremiah Wright than he could disown the black community or his own grandmother and spoke about how Trinity United “embodies the black community in its entirely.”

Since that speech Wright has been tossed under the bus — and now, so has Trinity United. …

The Obama Gaffe Machine gets John Fund’s attention.

For months, Barack Obama has had the image of an incandescent, golden-tongued Wundercandidate. That image may be fraying now.

As smart and credentialed as he is, Sen. Obama is often an indifferent speaker without a teleprompter. He has large gaps in his knowledge base, and is just as likely to dig in and embrace a policy misstatement as abandon it. ABC reporter Jake Tapper calls him “a one-man gaffe machine.”

Take the Auschwitz flub, where Mr. Obama erroneously claimed last weekend in New Mexico that his uncle helped liberate the Nazi concentration camp. Reporters noted Mr. Obama’s revised claim, that it was his great uncle who helped liberate Buchenwald. They largely downplayed the error. Yet in another, earlier gaffe back in 2002, Mr. Obama claimed his grandfather knew U.S. troops who liberated Auschwitz and Treblinka – even though only Russian troops entered those concentration camps. …

Mark Steyn says Hillary was beaten by Democrat Party sexism, not Obama.

“Someone wins, someone doesn’t win, that’s life,” Nancy Kopp, Maryland’s treasurer, told The Washington Post. “But women don’t want to be totally dissed.” She was talking about her political candidate, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Democratic women are feeling metaphorically battered by the Obama campaign. “Healing The Wounds Of Democrats’ Sexism,” as the Boston Globe headline put it, will not be easy. Geraldine Ferraro is among many prominent Democrat ladies putting up their own money for a study from the Shorenstein Center at Harvard to determine whether Sen. Clinton’s presidential hopes fell victim to party and media sexism.

How else to explain why their gal got clobbered by a pretty boy with a resume you could print on the back of his driver’s license, a Rolodex apparently limited to neosegregationist race-baiters, campus Marxist terrorists and indicted fraudsters, and a rhetorical surefootedness that makes Dan Quayle look like Socrates.

“On this Memorial Day,” said Barack Obama last Monday, “as our nation honors its unbroken line of fallen heroes – and I see many of them in the audience here today.”

Hey, why not? In Obama’s Cook County, Ill., many fallen heroes from the Spanish-American War still show up in the voting booths come November. It’s not unreasonable for some of them to turn up at an Obama campaign rally, too. …

Roger Simon reacts to the news about the priest Michael Pfleger, and the fact that Obama’s top campaign aide, David Axelrod was due to make a documentary about him.

Dick Morris says for the Clintons …

… Winning is still everything. No matter who gets destroyed, offended or hurt in the process.

We’ve seen it throughout Hillary’s campaign: the race-baiting by Bill Clinton in South Carolina and by Hillary in Kentucky. His comparison of Obama to Jesse Jackson and her talk about “hard-working whites” was not accidental. The Clintons don’t make verbal mistakes.

Everything they say is deliberate. And then Bill Clinton actually had the nerve to say that it was the Obama campaign and not him — that they had played the race card. Once again, he’s the victim.

Now Bill and Hillary are desperate to keep Hillary in the race. Despite mathematical impossibility, the Clintons are biding their time. Out of money and out of delegates, they are waiting for some unknown force to suddenly emerge and change the race. That’s why Hillary made the reference to Bobby Kennedy.

Because the Clintons know, better than most people, that time has often been a friend. …

Michael Barone gives a reality check on the economy.

“It’s the economy, stupid,” James Carville famously said during the 1992 campaign, when a young Bill Clinton was running against the other President Bush. The same could be said during this presidential campaign. The headlines are full of economic bad news — mortgage foreclosures, the collapse of an investment bank, higher gas and food prices and lower home prices. Voters routinely list the economy as their chief concern, and consumer confidence has sunk to low levels.

Yet at the same time, the economic numbers are not so bad. A recession is defined as two quarters of contraction. But we haven’t had one yet. The gross domestic product has grown, albeit only by 0.6 percent, in the last two quarters. As my U.S. News colleague James Pethokoukis blogged after the most recent numbers came in, “Dude, where’s my recession?” …